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Thread: April showers bring May flowers so they say. It just makes me sneeze alot

  1. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by nail bunny View Post
    Ah, Wasteland gifts. Probably the ring would be a hit. Of the other two, how many Wastelanders seemed to be without fire versus without a can opener at given time?
    Yeah, there does seem to be a disproportionate amount of smokers. Especially on the Deez.

    Movie jokes cleverly robed in truth aside.... I thought that maybe the 'survival tool' aesthetic of the strikers would be an added level of cool/theme/appreciation sort of thing. I had thought about more primitive flint and steel strike-a-light kits, because I have put those together (Altoids tin, striker, flint, charcloth) as prizes for medieval contests I've run and those have been a hit, but something like that might not be as apropo for Wastelanders, I was guessing.

    Dark the stars and dark the moon
    Hush the night and the morning loon
    Tell the horses and beat on your drum
    Gone their master, gone their son.

    Dark the oceans, dark the sky
    Hush the whales and the ocean tide
    Tell the salt marsh and beat on your drum
    Gone their master, gone their son.


 

  • #47
    can't be bothered Eldorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ovinomancer View Post
    And it's intellectually weak
    You are the poster child for the Dunning-Kruger effect.

  • #48
    self admitted prolifer kirinke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Palaralae View Post
    Yeah, there does seem to be a disproportionate amount of smokers. Especially on the Deez.

    Movie jokes cleverly robed in truth aside.... I thought that maybe the 'survival tool' aesthetic of the strikers would be an added level of cool/theme/appreciation sort of thing. I had thought about more primitive flint and steel strike-a-light kits, because I have put those together (Altoids tin, striker, flint, charcloth) as prizes for medieval contests I've run and those have been a hit, but something like that might not be as apropo for Wastelanders, I was guessing.
    How about water purification tablets? Small mirrors, little compasses or nylon cord. Those are fairly cheap and useful for desert survival situations and might appeal to Wastelanders.

    Also, toilet paper, metal straws and soap.

    Mix and match with the fire-starters/bottle cap openers.
    Last edited by kirinke; April 11th, 2019 at 12:15 AM.
    Madness does not always howl. Sometimes, it is the quiet voice at the end of the day saying, "Hey, is there room in your head for one more?"

    I is before E except after C, then it's chaos man, mass chaos! Letters coming together into words, but then you go English and they put U's in places that just shouldn't go there... AHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

    My sanity left town along time ago and didn't leave a forwarding address. It's not missed.

  • #49
    Pony Up! Ovinomancer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eldorian View Post
    You are the poster child for the Dunning-Kruger effect.
    Says the guy that gets his thought leader's instructions from youtube. You can't even articulate the ussues, much less debate them. All you can do is tell people to read and believe Bostrom.

    Runaway IA concern is chock full of.the precautionary principle. It's entirely based on the idea that we can create an intelligence that will always know how to make itself smarter with no evidence this is even likely. There's a reasonable threat we can make an intelligence that is alien enough to be incomprehesible therefore dangerous, but runaway AI is science fiction.
    Quote Originally Posted by PWD View Post
    I think ovi's right.

  • #50
    self admitted prolifer kirinke's Avatar
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    I'm more afraid of robots taking over our jobs than the world. AI is just not advanced enough for world domination. Hell, every time a human has tried it (Gengis Khan, Alexander the Great, Hitler for example) it falls apart. I doubt AI would have better luck.
    Last edited by kirinke; April 11th, 2019 at 11:23 AM.
    Madness does not always howl. Sometimes, it is the quiet voice at the end of the day saying, "Hey, is there room in your head for one more?"

    I is before E except after C, then it's chaos man, mass chaos! Letters coming together into words, but then you go English and they put U's in places that just shouldn't go there... AHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

    My sanity left town along time ago and didn't leave a forwarding address. It's not missed.

  • #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Ovinomancer View Post
    Says the guy that gets his thought leader's instructions from youtube. You can't even articulate the ussues, much less debate them. All you can do is tell people to read and believe Bostrom.

    Runaway IA concern is chock full of.the precautionary principle. It's entirely based on the idea that we can create an intelligence that will always know how to make itself smarter with no evidence this is even likely. There's a reasonable threat we can make an intelligence that is alien enough to be incomprehesible therefore dangerous, but runaway AI is science fiction.
    Yeah, it seems a popular way to worry.

    I think all AI concerns that AI could have unknown biases or that we are unable to understand how they actually get their decision seem valid. That we get some super-AI that can remove us from existence or put into slavery without us realizing it quickly enough is not very likely. We need to deal witht he first two problems.
    (And if we do, maybe the hypothetical chance of that super-AI is not really a threat anymore, because we can predict its behaviour, and it won't have any hidden biases that lead to world domination or humanity's extinction/slavery.)

    It reminds me of all these talks of: "We could be in a simulation", which also leads to stuff like Roko's Basilisk. The premise of "simulating an entire universe" has not been proven yet. (And I would argue that theories against quantum cloning and against hidden variables behind quantum randomness would provide good arguments why it's not possible)

  • #52
    can't be bothered Eldorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ovinomancer View Post
    Says the guy that gets his thought leader's instructions from youtube. You can't even articulate the ussues, much less debate them. All you can do is tell people to read and believe Bostrom.

    That's not a come back from being accused of suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect, Mr. expert in philosophy, law, physics, engineering, kinematics, economics, or whatever topic gets mentioned. It's actually just another symptom. I fully realize I'm not an expert in existential risk. You're a college freshman who took a few intro classes, who doubles down when it's pointed out you've got the facts wrong.

    Oh, and in Bostrom's analogy of the urn of invention, the precautionary principle would be a method of dealing with grey balls, not black. Tho telling you this is pointless, as you will double down on your biases and conclusions formed in ignorance.
    Last edited by Eldorian; April 11th, 2019 at 05:58 PM.

  • #53
    Pony Up! Ovinomancer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eldorian View Post
    That's not a come back from being accused of suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect, Mr. expert in philosophy, law, physics, engineering, kinematics, economics, or whatever topic gets mentioned. You're a college freshman who took a few intro classes, who doubles down when it's pointed out you've got the facts wrong.
    I explain my thinking (which a D-K exampke couldn't) and you respond with the Good Will Hunting bit, absent, of course, any actual argument? Wow, intellectual heavyweight, folks! And, for the record, I do like apples.
    Oh, and in Bostrom's analogy of the urn of invention, the precautionary principle would be a method of dealing with grey balls, not black. Tho telling you this is pointless, as you will double down on your biases and conclusions formed in ignorance.
    You could use it there, too, but it's most certainly not restricted to that. Have you searched youtube for a video explaning the precautionary principle, yet? I'd hate to take advantage of your ignorance.
    Quote Originally Posted by PWD View Post
    I think ovi's right.

  • #54
    can't be bothered Eldorian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ovinomancer View Post
    I explain my thinking (which a D-K exampke couldn't)
    This is just more Dunning-Kruger. You don't know what Dunning-Kruger means, either. The confidence you have in your argument from ignorance is astounding.

    And your bias against youtube videos is laughable. You should realize that a youtube video of a lecture or talk is just as valuable as attending a lecture or talk. Arguably more, as it reaches a larger audience and can be rewatched.
    Last edited by Eldorian; April 11th, 2019 at 06:06 PM.

  • #55
    Pony Up! Ovinomancer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eldorian View Post
    This is just more Dunning-Kruger. You don't know what Dunning-Kruger means, either. The confidence you have in your argument from ignorance is astounding.
    Dunning-Kruger is the internet lackwit's way of sounding smart when they call others dumb. In reality, it's a statistical study that indicates a reasonable likelihood that there is an effect where people with little practical knowledge of a skill tend to overestimate their potential capability (or oerformance) in that skill and those with high levels of proficiency tend to understate their capability (or performance). Applied to individuals, it's meaningless. Also, it's only a weak to moderate trend, with an R2 of around .5.

    And, I didn't look any of that up for this post. I've long used the "abuses D-K" as a yardstick for people that just ingest memes instead of thinking.

    Did you enjoy those apples?

    And your bias against youtube videos is laughable. You should realize that a youtube video of a lecture or talk is just as valuable as attending a lecture or talk. Arguably more, as it reaches a larger audience and can be rewatched.
    Oh, no doubt, but it's also imposdible to ask questions or delve deeper into a topic as you might in a non-made for youtube lecture or panel. When you watch TED talks, you have to realize there's very little academic rigor involved. Also, my mocking of your youtube habit is more that you can't seem to actually argue the topics you watch, just link them. Hell, you rarely do that and just tell people to go watch stuff on youtube.

    Finally, the irony involved in your defense of your youtube habit whilst trying to use the Good Will Hunting attack (snrk) is exquisite. Also, lacking in youtube videos to explain it to you, so it will likely escape your notice.
    Quote Originally Posted by PWD View Post
    I think ovi's right.

  • #56
    can't be bothered Eldorian's Avatar
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    I find it staggering how full of shit you are. You're some dipshit on a old gaming forum calling Nick Bostrom "intellectually weak" and then claiming that no, you're not some dipshit wildly overestimating your intellectual abilities, but an actual genius because I refuse to engage in hours long, pointless arguments with you and would rather just mention or link to a lecture or podcast on the subject. Somehow this means you're winning, in your head.

    The reason you're so defensive when you're accused of suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect is because it's so, SO APT. So put that in your expert legal opinion, factor the price of it in your expert economic opinion, discover how far up your ass you can shove it in your expert kinematic opinion, and then philosophize why you're wasting your time arguing on this forum when it's so obvious that your lack of real expertise and your religious certainty in your own opinion makes everything you write completely suspect.

    And your Good Will Hunting reference is also fucking stupid, but then again, you probably think you're an expert in cinema as well. Because both those characters are douchebags in that moment, and neither is in the right.

  • #57
    guyjin's Avatar
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    Ovi isn't wrong. Every day you leave your house, you draw a ball from your jar. if you draw a black ball, you get murdered. therefore never leave your house. it's the only conclusion you can draw from that analogy.

  • #58
    56% of an excuse nail bunny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kirinke View Post
    I'm more afraid of robots taking over our jobs than the world.
    That's actually the only AI fear Nicky Bostrom has that's completely grounded and arguable. And yes, I've read his books Eldorian (I try to stay on top of AI research as a hobby).


    The problem here is... Luddites. And yes, there will be Luddism. The machines will get smashed. The uprising (at least the start) will be televised. There will be blood in the streets, and the gunless Liberals will die in terror as the heartland commits to war versus the coastal oligarchs.
    I can delete you, one click and you're overwritten.

  • #59
    Haulin ass shiningbrow's Avatar
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    A healthy looking raccoon was there to greet me yesterday when I went to fetch something from the garage. I threatened it with a stout broom and yelled for it to get lost, go somewhere else, explained that it was unwelcome. After staring at me for a bit, it slowly and casually slinked away.
    "When the subway jerks, it's the fixed stars that throw you down."

  • #60
    self admitted prolifer kirinke's Avatar
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    And it'll probably be back there when your back is turned.

    Raccoons are horribly smart.
    Madness does not always howl. Sometimes, it is the quiet voice at the end of the day saying, "Hey, is there room in your head for one more?"

    I is before E except after C, then it's chaos man, mass chaos! Letters coming together into words, but then you go English and they put U's in places that just shouldn't go there... AHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

    My sanity left town along time ago and didn't leave a forwarding address. It's not missed.

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